WTI crude swings 3.38% intraday as supply-demand jitters grip oil market

WTI crude posted a 3.38% intraday swing on June 30, sliding from an open of $70.43 to close at $69.38 as traders weighed conflicting supply signals and demand concerns.

"The market is caught between OPEC's production discipline and mounting evidence of slowing global demand," said James Turner, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered. "The wide intraday range reflects genuine uncertainty about which force will dominate in the second half."

Crude touched a session high of $71.60 before reversing to a low of $69.22, with 152,104 contracts changing hands. The close at $69.38 represents a 1.5% decline from the open, extending a pattern of elevated volatility that has characterized June trading.

The 3.38% amplitude marks one of the widest daily ranges this quarter, showing the market's sensitivity to shifting inventory data and macroeconomic signals. With the next OPEC meeting scheduled for August, traders are pricing in a 40% probability of a production adjustment, according to options market data.

Supply Dynamics Remain in Focus

The EIA's latest weekly report showed U.S. crude inventories declining by 2.1 million barrels, a smaller draw than the 3.5 million barrels analysts had expected. The miss on inventory data contributed to the afternoon selloff that pushed prices below the $70 threshold, a level that has acted as both support and resistance in recent weeks.

OPEC's production data for June showed the cartel maintaining its current output targets, with compliance among member states at 102%. However, rising output from non-OPEC producers, particularly U.S. shale operators, has offset some of the cartel's restraint.

Demand Signals Cloud the Outlook

On the demand side, weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI readings from China and Europe have raised concerns about industrial consumption in the second half of 2026. China's crude imports fell 4% month-over-month in May, the latest data available, while European refinery margins have compressed to $4.50 per barrel, down from $6.80 in January.

The last time WTI posted a comparable intraday amplitude above 3% was in April, when prices swung between $68 and $72 following a surprise OPEC output announcement. That episode preceded a two-week consolidation period before prices resumed their downward trend.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.