Wedbush's Ives initiates SpaceX at outperform with $190 target

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives initiated coverage of SpaceX with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target, implying about 17% upside.

"SpaceX is one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market and is well-positioned to become a major hyperscaler with its vertically integrated platform across connectivity, launch, and AI infrastructure," Ives, managing director at Wedbush, said in a note Tuesday.

The $190 target values SpaceX at roughly $2.48 trillion in enterprise value based on fiscal 2028 revenue estimates. The stock, which debuted June 12 at $150 on the Nasdaq, traded near $163 Wednesday, down about 5% on the session. SpaceX has a market capitalization of roughly $2.3 trillion.

Ives built his bull case around three business lines: Starlink, launch services, and AI infrastructure. Starlink, the satellite broadband unit with about 12 million subscribers and average revenue per user near $66, generated an operating profit of $4.4 billion in 2025 on adjusted EBITDA of nearly $7.2 billion. Ives noted the service controls less than 1% of the global telecom and broadband market, leaving a long runway for growth.

The AI and compute division, which Ives called the anchor of his sum-of-the-parts valuation, recently booked compute deals worth roughly $28 billion annually with clients including Anthropic and Alphabet. SpaceX uses its Colossus data centers to provide AI compute for products such as Claude and Gemini. The deals are cancellable within 90 days, making them less durable than traditional multiyear contracts, Ives said.

The bull case hinges on Starship, SpaceX's fully reusable heavy-lift rocket still in testing. The company said it could begin deploying orbital AI compute satellites as early as 2028, though Ives acknowledged Starship has not yet worked as designed after 12 test flights. SpaceX plans to spend $350 billion in capital expenditures by 2030 to support its expansion, according to Goldman Sachs, the lead underwriter for the IPO.

The initiation from one of Wall Street's most visible tech bulls provides a valuation anchor for a stock that has whipsawed since its IPO, swinging from $225 to $147 in its first three weeks. Investors will watch for Starship's next test flight and any updates on the company's orbital data center timeline as the next catalysts.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.