US strikes Iran for fifth night as Hormuz shipping collapses to 13 vessels

The US military struck Iranian targets for a fifth consecutive night Thursday, hitting areas around Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed to about 10 percent of pre-war levels and Iran warned the waterway was an "unbreakable red line."

"If America's hostile actions against Iran continue, the Islamic Republic's response will be beyond the enemy's calculations, and new arenas of confrontation will be formed," Iranian army spokesperson Mohammad Akraminia said, according to state-affiliated media.

Only 13 merchant ships transited the strait on Thursday, data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler showed — eight leaving the Persian Gulf and five entering. Just one vessel used the southern route near the Omani coast that the US has promoted as safer. Brent crude traded at about $85 a barrel, more than 15 percent above pre-war levels but well below the nearly $120 peak reached earlier in the conflict. The US reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports Wednesday and struck an oil tanker heading toward Iran's Kharg Island export terminal.

The collapse of the April ceasefire and the renewed blockade threaten to reignite the oil supply crisis that sent global energy prices surging earlier this year. The International Energy Agency has warned that global crude stockpiles are dwindling after a 360-million-barrel drawdown between March and May, eroding the buffers that have helped cushion the market from the worst supply shock in decades.

The latest escalation began after Iran attacked commercial shipping using a US-patrolled alternative route through the strait, which Tehran says it has the right to control under the interim agreement signed in June. The US responded by reimposing its naval blockade and launching airstrikes that have now reached as far north as Semnan province, east of Tehran, home to Iran's ballistic missile production facilities.

Iran's health ministry said the strikes have killed at least 35 people and wounded more than 300. Among the sites hit was an area near a children's cancer hospital in Ahvaz, forcing the evacuation of 211 patients, state media reported.

Iran's Two-Track Strategy — Threats and Diplomacy

Behind the military escalation, both sides have kept diplomatic channels open. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday that Iran "is still in communication with the United States and wants to reach a deal." Iran's top negotiator, parliament speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, said Tehran "must always be prepared for fighting" but also "use diplomacy."

At the same time, Iran has escalated its threats. A military spokesperson warned that if President Donald Trump follows through on his threat to strike Iranian bridges and power plants, Iran would destroy "all infrastructure throughout the region." Separately, Reuters reported that Iran has told Yemen's Houthi rebels to prepare to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the US attacks Iran's power grid — a move that would threaten the Suez Canal shipping route and potentially cut off another major energy artery.

Global Supply Chains Under Pressure

The shipping crisis is already rippling through global supply chains. India ordered shipowners not to deploy Indian seafarers on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz after two Indian sailors were killed in drone attacks. An estimated 15,000 Indian seafarers remain stranded west of the strait, according to the Forward Seamen's Union of India.

The IEA's executive director Fatih Birol warned that while increased production from outside the Middle East and alternative pipeline routes have helped cushion the blow, "this cannot last very long because global crude stocks are going down." The world has relied on strategic oil stockpiles to absorb the loss of more than 1 billion barrels of oil since the war began in February.

Pakistan, a principal mediator in the conflict, said it remains "actively engaged with key interlocutors" to bring both sides back to the negotiating table, though it acknowledged that path is becoming increasingly difficult.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.