U.S. natural gas futures slipped 1.8% to $3.195/mmBtu as a warmer July weather outlook supported prices but a 5.8% storage surplus above the five-year average and solid production kept sellers active, according to BOK Financial.
Back
U.S. natural gas futures fall 1.8% as storage surplus caps weather-driven gains
U.S. natural gas futures slipped 1.8% to $3.195 per million British thermal units in choppy trading Tuesday, as a warmer weather outlook for early July supported prices but comfortable inventories and solid production limited the upside.
"Storage remains at a 5.8% premium to the five-year average, which is keeping the sellers present on rallies," Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at BOK Financial, said in a note. "Hotter weather forecasts will be needed to lift prices into July."
The July NYMEX contract traded at $3.234 per mmBtu in earlier action before sliding, while the August contract fell 1.4 cents to $3.265 and September gave up 1.1 cents to $3.223. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center on Monday flagged an elevated chance of above-normal temperatures across areas east of the Rockies from June 28 through July 2, with early signs of a broader heat wave June 30 through July 6 that could boost air-conditioning demand and gas-fired power generation.
Total U.S. natural gas inventories stood at 2.759 trillion cubic feet as of the week ended June 12, after a 73-billion-cubic-foot build, according to the Energy Information Administration. Stocks sit 151 Bcf, or 5.8%, above the five-year average but remain 29 Bcf below the year-ago level. The next EIA storage report is due Thursday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern.
The tug-of-war between bullish weather and rising supply is likely to persist through the summer, analysts said. LNG feedgas demand has recovered, but higher output has kept a lid on prices. In Europe, benchmark Dutch TTF gas slipped 0.3% to near €41.77 per megawatt-hour, with easing global supply concerns after Qatar's energy minister said a weekend explosion at a domestic gas-processing site left LNG plants and Ras Laffan export capacity unaffected.
The storage surplus means prices may struggle to sustain rallies unless hotter weather expands or intensifies, which would shrink weekly storage builds and boost power-sector demand. If forecasts turn cooler or production picks up further, storage injections could accelerate, keeping pressure on the front of the futures curve.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] U.S. Natural Gas Futures Fall in Early Trading - WSJ[2] US natural gas futures fall in early trading - MSN[3] U.S. Bets Billions of Dollars in Low-Cost Loans Can Revive Nuclear Power -- Commodities Roundup - marketscreener.com[4] Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk - Moomoo[5] U.S. Natural Gas Futures Pull Back With Supplies Limiting Rally - TechStock²
© 2026 Edgen Powered by