S&P 500 climbs 0.3% as Nasdaq 100 stages intraday reversal

The S&P 500 added 0.3% to reverse an intraday decline on June 25, with the Nasdaq 100 also turning positive as buying interest returned after chip stocks tumbled from record highs.

"This type of positive revision is unprecedented and is typically seen only after a shock or post-recession," JPMorgan analysts wrote in their 2026 mid-year outlook, raising their S&P 500 year-end target to 7,800.

The technology sector rose 0.5% to lead the rebound, followed by consumer discretionary at plus 0.4%. Energy lagged, slipping 0.6% as Brent crude held near $72 a barrel, below its pre-Iran conflict level. The PHLX Semiconductor Index recovered 0.8% after falling more than 3% on Tuesday, with Nvidia and Micron both gaining. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, held near 16, below its one-year average of 18. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged up 2 basis points to 4.38%, while the dollar index held near 104.5.

The recovery shows the market's resilience as earnings estimates have been revised up roughly 10% since the start of 2026, according to JPMorgan. BCA Research raised its S&P 500 target to 8,100 from 7,700 on Wednesday, representing 10% upside from the prior close. The next major catalyst comes in July when second-quarter earnings season begins, with hyperscaler capital spending expected to increase more than 75% year-over-year.

Wall Street Turns More Bullish on Second Half

JPMorgan's revised target of 7,800 implies about 6% upside from Tuesday's close, while BCA's 8,100 target suggests 10% upside. Both firms cited earnings strength as the primary driver, with S&P 500 earnings per share expected to grow 24% this year. The optimism comes despite headwinds including elevated interest rates, inflation at a three-year high, and a wave of new share supply from upcoming IPOs including SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic.

Forward price-to-earnings multiples for the S&P 500 remain attractive relative to their five-year averages, particularly in technology and healthcare. Five of the index's top 10 holdings — including Amazon, Micron, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms — trade below their historical valuation norms, providing a cushion against further downside.

The advance-decline ratio on the New York Stock Exchange was roughly 1.3-to-1, indicating broad but not overwhelming participation. Gold traded flat at $2,340 an ounce, while oil edged lower as geopolitical risk premiums continued to unwind.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.