Qatar sends mediators to Iran as US-Iran tensions threaten 21% of oil trade

Qatari mediators landed in Tehran on Thursday for talks with Iranian officials, coordinated with Washington, as the US and Iran traded airstrikes for a second day that pushed the Strait of Hormuz — through which about 21% of the world's oil passes — closer to closure.

"Extensive diplomatic efforts are underway to first agree on de-escalation and then set a date for another round of negotiations between technical teams," a regional source involved in the mediation told Axios.

The US struck approximately 90 military targets along Iran's coastline Wednesday, including missile and drone storage sites, after hitting more than 80 targets the previous day, according to Central Command. Iran retaliated by firing 10 ballistic missiles at Jordan's Azraq military base and striking US facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar. At least 14 people have been killed and 78 injured across Iran over the two-day period, the country's Health Ministry said.

The escalation threatens to unravel a memorandum of understanding signed in mid-June that extended an April ceasefire and began reopening the Strait of Hormuz — Iran's primary economic leverage. With President Donald Trump declaring the truce "over" and Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warning that "if you strike, you will be struck," mediators from Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are racing to prevent a return to all-out war that could send oil prices sharply higher.

Diplomatic Push Intensifies

The Qatari delegation's visit follows multiple phone calls between regional mediators and both US and Iranian officials on Wednesday, according to Axios. Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani spoke with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Thursday, with both sides "underscoring the importance of using diplomatic means to resolve regional issues," according to a statement from Doha.

A US official told Axios the Trump administration remains "committed to finding a resolution" and confirmed that technical-level discussions are continuing. The official described the MoU as "performance-based" and said Iran's recent actions amounted to "failed performance at an unacceptable level."

The last time the US and Iran exchanged strikes at this intensity was in February, when the initial conflict erupted and Iran blocked the strait, threatening to hit vessels that deviated from its authorized route. Oil prices surged more than 15% in the weeks that followed before retreating after the April ceasefire, according to data from the International Energy Agency.

Strait of Hormuz Remains the Flashpoint

Iran's chief negotiator said the strait would be reopened only under "Iranian arrangements," while the US military said its strikes targeted Iran's "ability to threaten the freedom of navigation" through the waterway. The US struck a railway bridge in Iran's northeast and targeted areas near the Bushehr nuclear power plant, according to Iranian state media, while explosions were reported in the port cities of Bandar Abbas, Konarak and Chabahar.

For Iran, control of the strait represents the "ultimate deterrent," Al Jazeera's Tehran correspondent reported, and giving it up would mean losing its negotiating position with the US. For Washington, ensuring freedom of navigation is non-negotiable — creating a deadlock that mediators are struggling to break.

The diplomatic push suggests that, despite Trump's declaration that the agreement was over, both Washington and regional powers are still exploring whether negotiations can be revived. A regional intelligence official involved in the mediation said high-level communications are happening around the clock to salvage the ceasefire, though mutual mistrust continues to rise.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.