Key Takeaways:
Oil tankers are returning to the Strait of Hormuz at the highest rate since the war began, with at least 36 commodity carriers transiting the waterway on June 22 alone.
WTI crude fell 0.4% to $72.89 a barrel in early Asian trade as the International Maritime Organization received safety guarantees allowing hundreds of ships to exit the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude traded at $78.15 a barrel, up 0.38%, as the market weighed the pace of supply recovery against lingering geopolitical risks.
"Oil tankers are becoming more overt in their transit through the Strait of Hormuz," ANZ Research analysts said in a report, noting the IMO plan will be carried out in cooperation with Iran, Oman and the U.S.
Commodity vessel traffic through the strait reached 36 carriers on June 22, the highest since the conflict began, according to maritime tracking firm Kpler. That represents nearly a third of normal peacetime traffic through the waterway, which typically handles about a fifth of global oil and gas exports. Before the June 14 memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, fewer than 10 vessels a day passed through after Iran closed the strait on March 1 following U.S. and Israeli strikes. Since June 15, average daily crossings have climbed to 21.
The reopening threatens to flood markets with trapped supply. Big oil tankers are commanding $280,000 a day to enter the Persian Gulf to pick up cargoes, according to MarketWatch. The U.S. also granted a 60-day sanctions waiver allowing Iran to produce, sell and deliver crude through Aug. 21, adding further downside pressure on prices.
Diplomatic push accelerates
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Abu Dhabi on June 23 for a tour of the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain — his first visit to the Gulf since the war began — aimed at reassuring allies after the U.S.-Iran framework agreement. Rubio said no country has the right to impose tolls or fees on transit through the strait, which is protected under international law.
Oman and Iran agreed to continue discussions on the future administration of navigation in the waterway, including maritime services and associated costs, according to a joint statement issued after talks in Muscat on June 23. The two countries will establish a joint working group involving their foreign ministries and consult other Persian Gulf coastal states and relevant parties.
Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said Tehran agreed to establish a communication hotline for ships transiting the strait to reduce tensions and quickly address any incidents. "This hotline is not for granting permission; permission follows its own procedures," he said. "This hotline is solely for resolving problems involving ships or clarifying possible incidents."
Nuclear inspections dispute clouds outlook
The broader peace framework faces complications. President Donald Trump claimed on June 23 that Iran had agreed to the "highest level" of nuclear inspections, writing on Truth Social that the arrangement would ensure "Nuclear Honesty." But Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the same day that Iran has no plans to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to visit nuclear facilities damaged in U.S. and Israeli strikes last year.
Trump later softened his stance, telling reporters in Pennsylvania that inspectors would go to Iran at an "appropriate time" and that "there is no rush."
The last time Iran blocked IAEA access following military strikes — after the 2020 assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh — it took more than six months before limited inspections resumed. Any prolonged standoff could reintroduce supply risk premiums into crude prices.
If the diplomatic track holds and Hormuz traffic normalizes, WTI could test the $70 support level, a threshold not breached since before the conflict began. If nuclear inspections remain a sticking point and Iran reasserts control over strait administration, the supply recovery could stall, keeping Brent above $75.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
