Memory chip stocks rebound 5% as Iran ceasefire lifts sector

Memory chip stocks rebounded in pre-market trading Monday, with SanDisk, Western Digital and Seagate each rising more than 5%, as a US-Iran ceasefire agreement removed a key risk that had weighed on the sector for weeks.

"Event-driven market selloffs tend to see equity markets bottom alongside peak uncertainty," Matthew See, head of Asia-Pacific specialist sales and market thematics at JPMorgan Chase & Co., wrote in a note, adding that stock markets were likely to have found a floor.

Micron Technology rose more than 3%, while Intel and Advanced Micro Devices gained 2.3% and 1.1%, respectively. The iShares Semiconductor ETF added 5% last week as the ceasefire narrative gained traction. The rebound follows a brutal selloff on July 2, when a report that Anthropic was in talks with Samsung to manufacture a custom AI chip sent Micron, Western Digital, Seagate and Nvidia sharply lower on thin pre-holiday trading volume. Anthropic told TechCrunch it uses chips from Google, Amazon and Nvidia for computing power and declined to comment on its own chip ambitions.

The ceasefire, announced Tuesday evening by President Donald Trump, opens the Strait of Hormuz for a two-week period and sent oil prices down more than 13% to $94.49 a barrel. For memory chip makers, the relief comes during a structural shortage that has driven extraordinary returns: SanDisk posted a gain of roughly 860% in the first half of 2026, while Micron rose 304% and Intel gained 278%, making them the three best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 over that period.

The selloff that preceded Monday's rebound followed a pattern that played out in January, when an Anthropic-related narrative sent CrowdStrike shares from the $110s to the $90s before the cybersecurity company recovered to the $190s. Jim Cramer, writing in a CNBC column, drew the parallel directly, arguing that Intel — which surged 17% last week after buying a 49% stake in its Irish data center joint venture from Apollo Global Management — offered the most upside among chip stocks.

Intel has additional drivers beyond the ceasefire. President Trump announced that Apple reached a deal to use Intel as a second chip supplier, a significant win for the company's foundry business as it tries to catch up with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Still, Intel trades at roughly 90 times forward earnings, a steep premium to Micron and SanDisk, which trade below the S&P 500's 21.5 times multiple, according to first-half 2026 data. The market is pricing in a turnaround that Intel has not yet delivered.

The memory chip supply-demand imbalance remains the structural driver for the sector. A shortage of high-bandwidth memory used in AI data centers has pushed prices higher, and with data center build-outs projected to continue through 2030, the demand outlook remains strong. Micron told investors it expects the memory chip market to stay "tight" beyond 2027. Barclays equity strategists said the stock market was likely to experience a "powerful short squeeze" as hedge funds unwind protections put in place during the Iran conflict, removing a source of downward pressure on chip stocks.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment shifted from bearish to bullish for Micron and from neutral to extremely bullish for Intel, reflecting the rapid change in mood. Roundhill Investments launched a sector-specific exchange-traded fund, the Roundhill Memory ETF, last week, capitalizing on the insatiable investor interest in memory chip stocks.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.