Iran Peace Talks Send Oil Lower as Trump Pushes Broader Deal

(P1) Oil prices fell sharply and gold rallied Monday after Iranian and U.S. envoys convened in Doha for high-level talks aimed at de-escalating the months-long conflict in the Middle East. The negotiations, focused on a potential 60-day roadmap to peace, come as President Donald Trump pressures Arab nations to normalize ties with Israel as part of a wider settlement.

(P2) "The deal with Iran will either be a great and meaningful one, or there will be no deal," President Trump said in a statement on his Truth Social platform, demanding that any agreement be followed by an immediate expansion of the Abraham Accords.

(P3) The market reaction was swift, with spot gold rising 1.5 percent to $4,574.17 an ounce as the dollar weakened on hopes of a breakthrough. Oil prices dropped on expectations that a deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for about 21 percent of global oil trade that Iran has kept largely closed. Indian refiners have already shifted imports toward Latin America and Africa to mitigate disruptions, according to data from analytics firm Kpler.

(P4) At stake is a potential realignment of Middle East security and economics, but significant hurdles remain. A draft 14-point memorandum is reportedly under discussion, but Iran's nuclear program, its ballistic missile capabilities, and the unfreezing of billions in assets are contentious issues yet to be resolved. The outcome of the talks could either stabilize global energy markets or trigger a new wave of volatility if they falter.

Hormuz and Sanctions Relief at Core of Talks

An Iranian delegation, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati, is focused on securing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the release of frozen assets, according to regional diplomats cited in Iranian media. While Iran’s navy said 32 commercial vessels were recently allowed passage, the waterway remains under tight control.

The presence of Hemmati in Doha signals that sanctions relief and the unfreezing of funds are central to Tehran's objectives. However, Iranian officials have indicated that more contentious topics, such as the country's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, might be deferred to a later 60-day negotiation period if an initial memorandum is signed.

Trump Links Iran Deal to Abraham Accords Expansion

President Trump has explicitly tied the negotiations to a broader diplomatic push, calling on Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan to join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham endorsed the move, stating it could turn the Middle East from a "powder keg" into a center of economic opportunity.

This linkage faces significant resistance. A Saudi source told CNN that Riyadh will not establish ties with Israel without an "irreversible pathway" to a Palestinian state, a long-standing position. Meanwhile, tensions continue to simmer on other fronts. Israel launched fresh strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon's Tyre district and Bekaa Valley, and the death toll in Lebanon has surpassed 3,185 since March, according to the country's health ministry. Iran's foreign minister reaffirmed support for Hezbollah, underscoring the complexity of achieving a comprehensive regional peace.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.