Key Takeaways:
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped 52% in three days after Iran attacked two commercial vessels, reversing a tentative recovery in shipments through the world's most important oil chokepoint and pushing crude prices higher.
"The attack is a setback in the plans to evacuate ships and resume transits through the Strait of Hormuz, although some transits can still be expected to take place," said Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at the Baltic and International Maritime Council.
Tanker transits — including crude oil, oil products and chemical tankers — reached 13 in both directions on Friday, down from 27 on Wednesday, which had been the highest single-day count since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, according to Kpler data. Overall sailings including dry bulk ships totaled 62 on June 24, representing 53% of the traffic recorded on the same day last year, AXSMarine data showed. Before the conflict began, average daily sailings stood at about 125 ships.
The renewed disruption threatens to undo progress made since a 60-day ceasefire deal between Washington and Tehran. Oil buyers had been hoping to secure stocks after months of supply disruption, with top exporter Saudi Arabia resuming crude loadings at its Ras Tanura terminal on Friday. Brent crude rose 52 cents to $72.51 a barrel in early Asian trading Monday, while West Texas Intermediate gained 71 cents to $69.94, after oil prices had recorded their third straight weekly decline.
The first attack occurred on June 25 when an Iranian drone struck the Singapore-registered container ship Ever Lovely, operated by Taiwan's Evergreen Marine, as it transited the southern corridor of the strait. The vessel sustained minor damage to its bridge area, and all 21 crew members were reported safe, according to the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore. The United Nations shipping agency temporarily paused its voluntary evacuation scheme — which had moved 57 ships carrying about 1,100 seafarers since June 23 — following the incident.
US Central Command conducted strikes against Iranian positions on June 26 in what it described as a "powerful response." Iran retaliated the following day by striking the Panama-flagged very large crude carrier Kiku with an unidentified projectile while the 300,866-dwt tanker was laden with about 2 million barrels of oil. The Joint Maritime Information Centre raised the threat level in the waterway from moderate to substantial.
Iran's deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said Friday that safe passage through the strait could not be guaranteed without coordination with Tehran, underscoring the fragility of the interim agreement. Iran does not recognize the southern corridor that the IMO-established evacuation plan had been using.
Despite the attacks, at least four tankers including three VLCCs entered the Gulf to load oil on Friday, and two separate supertankers entered the strait to load Iranian crude, ship tracking data from LSEG and MarineTraffic showed. One tanker exited with 2 million barrels via the Omani side of the waterway, Kpler analysis showed.
The JMIC said the southern corridor had been widened to allow simultaneous inbound and outbound traffic, though it warned mariners of the existence of mines and expected naval presence as clearance operations continued. Reports published Sunday suggested Iran and the United States had agreed to stop recent hostilities and restart discussions in Qatar regarding the strait dispute, according to Axios.
ANZ analysts said the market may need to reconsider expectations that oil supply from the Persian Gulf would recover quickly, noting that tanker backlogs, damaged infrastructure and production shutdowns continue to limit crude availability. The bank estimated it could take the rest of the year before oil supplies return to pre-conflict levels.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
