Key Takeaways:
A new report from Deutsche Bank finds 10 percent of Americans have used GLP-1 drugs, triggering a lasting reduction in consumer spending.
"AI perhaps occupies more of investors’ minds, but weight-loss drugs are quietly changing the daily lives of millions, one bite at a time," Jim Reid, global head of macro and thematic research at Deutsche Bank, said in the May 19 report.
The survey of 550 consumers found that during medication, users’ visits to full-service restaurants fell from 55 percent to 31 percent. Spending on fast food, takeout, and alcohol all declined by a similar magnitude, from over 50 percent to roughly one-third.
The report identifies a structural demand shift, not a temporary disruption, as consumption habits remain depressed even after users stop taking the drugs. This poses a significant headwind for restaurant and beverage companies while benefiting drugmakers like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
The findings suggest the impact of GLP-1 drugs like Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro extends far beyond the pharmacy. The reduction in calorie consumption is becoming a direct and persistent drag on the top-line revenue of major consumer packaged goods and restaurant firms. According to the data, even former users do not return to their previous spending levels, indicating a permanent behavioral shift.
This trend is creating a broader "wellness movement," according to a separate analysis from PwC. Consumer spending is not just disappearing but being reallocated from food to other categories like gym memberships, beauty products, and travel. PwC data shows that by December 2025, one in five American households is expected to have at least one user of a GLP-1 drug, amplifying this economic shift.
The market for the drugs themselves is poised for further expansion. Deutsche Bank’s report projects that the user base could double, exceeding 20 percent of the US population by 2030, largely driven by the introduction of more convenient oral tablet versions. Data from Citi shows that Novo Nordisk's oral version of its weight-loss drug is already gaining traction, underscoring the potential for accelerated adoption.
The rise of GLP-1s creates clear winners and losers for investors. Pharmaceutical firms Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are the most direct beneficiaries of the surging demand. Conversely, companies in the food, beverage, and restaurant sectors face a structural challenge to growth. The impact is also creating unexpected headwinds in other areas, with some medical specialists, such as nephrologists, reporting a decline in business as the drugs reduce complications like kidney disease.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
