Bank of America lifts 2026 China export growth forecast to 15% on AI

Bank of America revised its 2026 China export growth forecast upward to 15%, citing surging demand from the artificial intelligence industry as the primary catalyst for the upgrade.

The new projection marks a significant increase from the bank's prior estimate and reflects accelerating shipments of AI-related hardware, semiconductors and electronics components from Chinese factories. China's export sector has been a key pillar of economic growth, with outbound shipments rising 5.9% in 2024 and maintaining momentum into 2025, according to customs data.

"China's AI supply chain is becoming a structural export driver, spanning everything from data center equipment to advanced manufacturing inputs," said Helen Qiao, chief China economist at Bank of America. "The upgrade reflects both volume growth and improving unit values as Chinese producers move up the value chain."

The revision comes as global tech companies ramp up capital expenditure on AI infrastructure. Chinese exports of integrated circuits reached $159 billion in 2024, up 18% year over year, while exports of automatic data processing equipment — a category that includes servers and networking gear — rose 12% over the same period, according to the General Administration of Customs. The previous comparable period of rapid export acceleration was in 2021, when China's outbound shipments surged 30% as global demand rebounded from the pandemic, though that pace was fueled by consumer goods rather than industrial technology.

The upgrade carries implications beyond trade data. China's export machine has faced headwinds from elevated tariffs imposed by the U.S. and European Union, with Washington maintaining an average tariff rate of about 19% on Chinese goods after multiple escalation rounds since 2018. The previous 25% tariff on $250 billion of Chinese imports in 2019 reduced bilateral trade flows by roughly 16% over the following 12 months, according to Federal Reserve research. Yet AI-driven demand appears to be offsetting some of that drag, particularly for higher-value components that face fewer direct tariff barriers.

For investors, the forecast signals potential upside for Chinese tech and manufacturing stocks. The AI supply chain theme has already lifted shares of companies tied to data center equipment, chip packaging and electronics manufacturing services. If the 15% export growth materializes, it would represent the fastest pace of expansion since the post-pandemic rebound of 2021, adding roughly 1.5 to 2 percentage points to China's gross domestic product growth, based on historical export-to-GDP elasticity estimates.

The outlook is not without risks. Escalation of trade restrictions — including potential further tariff increases or technology export controls — could dampen the trajectory. Bank of America's forecast assumes no major escalation in trade barriers beyond current levels, a scenario that may prove optimistic given ongoing geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.