3 tankers struck in Hormuz as Trump warns Iran on oil route

Three tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the latest escalation threatening the waterway that carries a fifth of the world's crude.

Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday risk unraveling a fragile 60-day truce, as President Donald Trump warned he would "finish the job" if Tehran fails to reach a permanent deal.

"The attacks show Iran is unwilling to cede its leverage over the strait even during negotiations," said Dan Brouillette, former US Energy Secretary under Trump, on Fox Business's Mornings with Maria. "This is a direct challenge to the MoU."

Brent crude traded near $78 a barrel Tuesday, down from war-time highs above $120 in March, as the market priced in a gradual reopening of the waterway after the June 14 memorandum of understanding. Traffic through the strait has recovered to 108 verified crossings over the July 3-5 weekend, data from Kpler show, compared with as few as two tankers a day at the height of the conflict and a pre-war average of 120 to 140.

The attacks threaten to reverse that recovery. Before the war, roughly 20 million barrels of oil passed through the strait daily. If shipping is disrupted again, analysts expect Brent could spike above $90 a barrel, reigniting inflationary pressure that the MoU was designed to contain.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations said a Qatari-flagged LNG tanker, the Al Rekayyat, was struck by a projectile on its port side about 8 nautical miles off the coast of Limah, Oman, igniting a fire in its engine room. A second vessel, a Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker, was also damaged by missile fire, according to sources cited by Reuters. A third ship was hit by a drone but sustained only minor damage, with no injuries reported, the UKMTO said.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting the strait, a US official told CNN. Tehran's semi-official Fars News Agency reported the tanker was attacked after "ignoring repeated warnings," though no official confirmation has been issued. Qatar's Foreign Ministry condemned the strike as a "grave and explicit violation of international law" and said it holds Iran fully responsible.

A Fragile Truce Under Pressure

The attacks come as Iran observes multi-day funeral processions for former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a US-Israeli strike on Feb. 28, the first day of the war. Negotiations on a permanent deal have been paused during the mourning period.

Trump, speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Monday, said: "We're either going to make a deal or we're going to finish the job. And it won't be tough to finish the job." He added that the US could "knock down their bridges in one hour" and "knock out their energy supply."

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded on X, posting images of massive crowds at Khamenei's funeral and warning that "negotiations on the final deal will not commence if threats continue." He invoked paragraph 13 of the US-Iran MoU, which requires both sides to fulfill conditions including an end to all fighting and safe passage for commercial vessels through the strait.

The Strait as a Bargaining Chip

Iran has used the strait as leverage throughout the conflict. Since early March, it restricted passage to vessels from select countries, with some reportedly paying as much as $2 million per ship to transit. The IRGC released a map in April showing an approved route that diverts ships closer to Iran's coastline, away from Omani waters.

On Sunday, the IRGC warned it had deployed patrol boats to block the "Omani route," Iranian media reported. The UKMTO said Sunday that while risk remains lower than during the pre-MoU period, "Iranian intent and capability to conduct intentional hostile action remain."

The MoU's vague wording on the strait's status remains a key sticking point in talks. Iran has signaled it may seek environmental or service fees for ships using the waterway, a proposal the US strongly rejects. A round of indirect negotiations in Qatar concluded last week with no visible progress.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.